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Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 90S.INVEST *yawn* Cyclone10 00:45, April 28, 2012 (UTC) Waste of time, it's gone.--Cyclone10 18:33, April 28, 2012 (UTC) 91S.INVEST ...Cyclone10 01:48, May 1, 2012 (UTC) Gone.Cyclone10 20:11, May 1, 2012 (UTC) 92S.INVEST ...Cyclone10 01:48, May 1, 2012 (UTC) Still here.Cyclone10 20:11, May 1, 2012 (UTC) Gone!Cyclone10 12:08, May 3, 2012 (UTC) 93S.INVEST ....3 invests in 1 basin.... ๏_๏Cyclone10 01:48, May 1, 2012 (UTC) This one's gone too.Cyclone10 20:11, May 1, 2012 (UTC) 96S.INVEST *yawn.*--Cyclone10 02:51, May 17, 2012 (UTC) 20S.KUENA 90S.INVEST Another invest... --'''CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:54, June 2, 2012 (UTC) : The structure on this storm is impressive, always has been, I even think it reached atleast depression strength earlier. Wind shear looks like it's getting to it now though.Supportstorm 04:05, June 5, 2012 (UTC) ::It's a depression according to Meteo-France and expected to get named soon. JTWC is the official word for this region though. Is this not a post-season storm? Yqt1001 21:54, June 5, 2012 (UTC) :::Yes, this is off-season, or post-season for that matter. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 22:01, June 5, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Kuena Hasn't been designated a name yet, but for now we'll just call it Kuena, moving along with the naming list. After looking really good today, 90S has been upgraded into a moderate tropical storm... Dvorak number is at 2.5. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 01:34, June 6, 2012 (UTC) Well, that's surprising. Never expected to see a post-season surprise (in this area of the SWIO). It's one of only a small handful of storms ever kown to exist at this time of year there. Lindsay and storm 1 of 1996 and 2007, respectively, formed in July in the borderline area of the Australian region/SWIO, but I forgot the last time we saw a June storm here. Ryan1000 03:27, June 6, 2012 (UTC) Now 20S.Cyclone10 04:38, June 6, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Kuena Bumped up to 50 kts, which would make it a severe tropical storm. The JTWC advisory forecasts that this is currently Kuena's peak, and over the next few days it will gradually weaken. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 17:21, June 6, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance Ex-Kuena Doesn't look like it....Cyclone10 15:34, June 7, 2012 (UTC) :Yeah, it plummeted in strength and is all ragedy on satellite. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 17:27, June 7, 2012 (UTC) :::Last advisory from RSMC Reunion. Was great to see while it lasted though! Ryan1000 02:05, June 8, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region 99P.INVEST This invest is in the Arafura Sea.Cy10 12:52, April 15, 2012 (UTC) Still here, but disorganized.Cy10 22:01, April 17, 2012 (UTC) It's gone.Cy10 01:54, April 25, 2012 (UTC) 19S.NONAME 94S.INVEST Near Indonesia.Cyclone10 21:52, May 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 19S I didn't see it coming.Cyclone10 12:13, May 7, 2012 (UTC) I don't see this one becoming named anytime soon. It looks like the SHem has shut down. But, the EPac is only a week away from beginning, starting tomorrow. Ryan1000 21:19, May 7, 2012 (UTC) Gone and de-invested.Cyclone10 03:02, May 12, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region 21P.NONAME 91P.INVEST It's pretty organized currently, I can imagine something out of this soon. Supportstorm 03:18, June 27, 2012 (UTC) :: Maybe.Cyclone10 22:27, June 27, 2012 (UTC) ::: It has reached tropical depression strength and it seem like it want to continue to organize. Supportstorm 02:20, June 29, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 21P Who knew!--Cyclone10 14:51, June 29, 2012 (UTC) :Yep, looks good this morning. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:59, June 29, 2012 (UTC) :What name will it be given: Evan, Mitchell, or a Port Moresby name? 16:06, June 29, 2012 (UTC) ::Mitchell I think, but I want to know how rare it is to see a named storm this time of year? Supportstorm 16:49, June 29, 2012 (UTC) Last laugh for the SHem for sure. Off-season storms are rare in the SHem..but this..this is in the height of winter. In the NHem it would be the equivalent of February! This could cross over to the 2013 season too, if it survives until July 1st. Yqt1001 17:05, June 29, 2012 (UTC) Amazing!!! I really want to know how this system is going to be name if it is going to be name and if it survives inyo July it will be like a Zeta and Alicia of NAHSAllanjeffs 17:21, June 29, 2012 (UTC) You mean Alice, right Allan? Anyways, what are the odds? Two off-season storms in the same year for SHem. No storm has ever formed at this time of year in this area of the SHem. We had two July storms in SHem as I mentioned earlier, Lindsay in 1996 and an unnamed storm in 2007, but both of those formed on the other side of Australia. This year we had Kuena in the SWIO, one of a kind, forming over a month after the season ended, and now we have this, which could last into next year (for them) and be the latest end to any SPac season on record. Ryan1000 21:04, June 29, 2012 (UTC) Looks like Mitchell wanna be will cause an unusual end to our season. AndrewTalk To Me 22:34, June 29, 2012 (UTC) ...And it's gone, well atleast it was interesting while it lasted. Supportstorm 02:01, June 30, 2012 (UTC) Thanks Ryan yes it was Alice.Allanjeffs 02:27, June 30, 2012 (UTC) :Yeah, I really wanted to see this last into the next season, but, two off-season storms in the SHEM is a way to end the season! --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:39, June 30, 2012 (UTC) Weird... I guess it still is alive. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:14, July 1, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 30% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 15% - Flooding counts. *Iggy - <1% - Probably not. *Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count. *Koji - Negative 10% - No. *Lua - 50% - Coin toss. SPAC: *Cyril - 5% - Not enough damage. *Daphne - 7% - Flooding does count, but not enough. Cyclone10 17:59, April 29, 2012 (UTC) : Carlos, Heidi, Jasmine, and Lua have been retired.Isaac829 02:11, September 21, 2012 (UTC) I'm surprised Jasmine was retired, but not about any of the others. AndrewTalk To Me 21:19, September 21, 2012 (UTC) I was very surprised that Jasmine retired (per the 0.1% I gave her).Isaac829 21:35, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. #Iggy - 10% - No. #Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area. #Koji - 0% - No way! #'Lua - 50% - A coin toss chance of being retired based on what everyone is saying. ' SPAC: #Cyril - 0% - No impact. #Daphne - 3% - Affected little areas with flooding. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —''13R. '' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 10% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 5% - Meh #Iggy: 10% - Some damage and deaths in Indonesia, but other than that... nothing #Jasmine: 10% - Idk.. #Cyril: 5% - This storm caused widespread damage to vegetation and plantation in Tonga #Koji: 0% - Nah, didn't like this one #Lua: 45% - Aon Benfield data reveals $230+ million damage caused by this cyclone... and also Australia retires stuff based on damage and strength #Daphne: 5% - Some rain... —''12R. '' 14:25, April 3, 2012 (UTC) My turn AUS : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going. : 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him. : 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names. : 5 Jasmine:3% great intensity and big waves to some islands she definitely is not going : 6 Koji 1% What does this do??? nothing you are staying : 7 Lua 60% for now damage was not terrible and I want to see more reports but because Australia retires almost everything that is the number I put her of now : SPAC : Cyril 1% did nothing this was the only storm of this season what a shame it looks like it will be a record for this basin like it was record for the NIO last year. : Daphne 15% cause a lot of flood in the south pacific islasnds but not enough damage to be retire : Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Might as well: Australia: *Fina - 0% - Nope. *Grant - 23% - Australia has a generous track record, but Grant likely won't go. *Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant. *Iggy - 45% - Damage wasn't that bad for Australia, but it killed 16 people, so you can't say never here. *Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength. *Koji - 0% - No impact in the Australian region, and even it's second SWIO name didn't do anything either. *Lua - 70% - I heard damage wasn't as bad as it could have been, but because Australia retires almost everything that hits them, Lua gets a 7/10 chance. South Pacific: *Cyril - 5% - Something to talk about, but mostly not severe. *Daphne - 5% - I won't neglect the flooding in the SPac, but still, chances are not in favor here. Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC) Well, apparently in the latest RA IV Tropical Cyclone Committee for the SHem, Lua did indeed become retired. So was Yasi of last year, though a replacement name has not yet been selected for both. Ryan1000 15:08, November 15, 2012 (UTC)